Cascadia Prospectus

Like July waters in an Alpine lake, reactions continue to accumulate to the U.S. House's passage of the 1,201-page Waxman-Markey climate legislation.

The reviews are mixed. In the Los Angeles Times, Todd Darling writes:

The bill...proposes a market-based "carbon trading" plan that mirrors a European system initiated in 2005. This plan requires polluters to obtain government-issued "carbon credits," which then allow them to pollute above the agreed-on limit....the Waxman-Markey plan...gives 85% of the pollution credits to the biggest polluters for free....

In Europe, the distribution of free pollution credits to industries failed to establish a strong carbon market. In turn, the weak market in carbon credits failed to generate the money needed to fund new technology. And because there was a glut of free credits, polluters that went over the emissions limit could buy the necessary credits cheaply. So important states, such as Britain, continue to exceed the pollution limits.

Faced with disappointing results, Europe began auctioning off more of the credits in 2006. But the damage was done....The complex European trading scheme, started with free pollution credits, has not produced dramatic cuts in pollution or dramatic developments in technology or a robust market in carbon credits. The Financial Times of London was blunt: "Carbon markets leave much room for unverifiable manipulation. [Carbon] taxes are better, partly because they are less vulnerable to such improprieties."

State Rep. Reuven Carlyle (D-36th) makes some key points about the future of state and regional transportation funding in a Ballard News-Tribune op-ed.

After stressing funding shortfalls facing King County Metro's bus service and declining gas tax revenues for road projects, Carlyle explores several important macro-level policy options for funding improved mobility.

...the long-term, big picture is important and we can't let the battles over the tunnel, 520 bridge and other mega projects be a conversation killer about our broader structural challenges. Several ideas are on the front burner. Tolling is making a comeback, as evidenced by the Tacoma Narrows Bridge and soon on the 520 bridge. It makes sense for the people who use facilities the most to pay a greater share of the construction and maintenance costs for a specific facility or geographic area....comprehensive regional tolling - with e-tags and other solutions to help make it easy logistically - makes good economic sense so long as we have a real action plan....

Another, if controversial, idea is charging according to vehicle miles traveled (VMT), tracked by a transponder. This would take into account actual road usage, whether or not a vehicle uses gasoline, electricity or something else. It also opens up some interesting new policy ideas such as integrating car insurance, parking (no more parking meters!), tolls, etc., into one system that is able to charge drivers accordingly and accurately. Obviously, a concern about privacy is one major obstacle to this idea, so we'll have to continue looking at innovative ways to address this very legitimate concern.....

A third option is the car-tab fee model and using the funds for direct transportation services so the money doesn't disappear into the institutional bureaucracy of government but rather goes for real services on the ground.

Kudos to Rep. Carlyle for highlighting in a community forum the need to develop long-term surface transportation funding strategies. Regional (electronic, time-variable) tolling and further consideration of a vehicle mileage tax - along with a local-option motor vehicle excise tax applied at annual license renewal time - are all important options that our Cascadia Center and others have advocated.

More than that, Carlyle's commentary is especially timely.

The Seattle Times reports that the Canadian government has dropped its insistence Amtrak pay $1,500 per day for immigration and customs inspections for passengers on a planned second daily train between Seattle and Vancouver. As a result, service will expand next month, and continue on at least through the 2010 Winter Olympics and paralympics in Vancouver. Over-time, cross-border trade and tourism supporters have previously said, up to four daily Seattle-Vancouver trains would be feasible. The second daily train will allow same day round-trips on Amtrak between Seattle and Vancouver's Pacific Central Station (pictured above) and will speed travel times on the Portland to Vancouver route, as well. Vancouver Sun columnist Miro Cernetig reported earlier on studies showing an additional $1.87 million (C$) in additional annual tax revenues north of the border from the second daily passenger train and an additional $16-33 million in annual economic activity. The Times:

Bruce Agnew, policy director at the Discovery Institute's Cascadia Center, a think tank that studies transportation issues...said that Canadian officials are viewing the second daily route as a pilot project that Public Safety Canada will reevaluate after the Olympics to determine whether it is popular enough to be continued. Agnew is confident that the second daily service, which is to run later in the day, will have high ridership numbers because the route offers service from Portland and Seattle to Vancouver.

Cascadia Center has worked closely with the Washington State Department of Transportation, the Pacific Northwest Economic Region, The Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson and other allies to win approval of the increased frequency.

In March, 2007, the British Columbia government agreed to share in the costs of building a second rail siding near Surrey, south of Vancouver, to facilitate the second daily trip. Cascadia Center in this Vancouver Sun op-ed applauded that decision to proceed, and continued its behind-the-scenes networking on the initiative. The siding work was completed in the summer of 2008. But until the Friday July 3, 2009 announcement, the Canadian Border Services Agency had insisted Amtrak foot the daily cost of immigration and customs inspections, though no such arrangement exists for the current Seattle-Vancouver service. A cross-border coalition of political, non-profit and business leaders urged a broader view in a letter on the matter in late April to Canadian Public Safety Minister Peter van Loan, who announced the approval last week.

Increased daily trips are one piece of the puzzle. Further improvements to inter-city rail in Cascadia - paid for with U.S. federal stimulus dollars, additional U.S. funds in subsequent years, and money from Ottawa, the state of Washington and the province of British Columbia - could boost passenger train average speeds and reduce travel times in the corridor. A long-term goal is totally separate tracks for freight rail and passenger rail, so that both can function more smoothly.

Added roadway and transit capacity, plus more toll lanes, telecommuting and flexible work hours are among the traffic congestion solutions recommended by researchers at the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) in their 26th annual Urban Mobility Report, just released. Other recommendations include getting more efficiency out of existing surface transportation systems, and influencing development patterns to make walking, bicycling and transit more convenient. TTI, founded in 1950, is an internationally-recognized transportation research center based at Texas A & M University. The 2009 report is based on newly-analyzed 2007 data for 439 U.S. urban regions. In a summary of their findings, researchers noted that although travelers on average spent one less hour stuck in traffic in 2007 versus 2006 and wasted one less gallon of gas due to a slight downturn in traffic, the costs of congestion were still pronounced. The overall cost of U.S. traffic congestion in 2007, according to the report, totaled $87.2 billion in wasted fuel and lost productivity. There were 2.8 billion gallons of wasted fuel and 4.2 billion wasted hours.

TTI researchers warned that the historical trend of worsening congestion will return as the economy recovers. For the Seattle region however, the report shows that the price of traffic congestion continued to grow.

Data for Puget Sound in the new report show that the annual cost of jammed roadways here in 2007 was $1.59 billion, the highest ever since TTI's first Urban Mobility Report was issued, using data for 1982, when regional congestion costs for Puget Sound totaled $96 million.

According to the new report, annual congestion costs per Puget Sound peak traveler reached a new high in 2007 of $938, versus $127 in 1982. Total traffic delay for the Seattle region totaled 73.6 million person hours in 2007, up by a factor of more than six since 1982. Daily vehicle miles traveled on highways and arterial streets combined have more than doubled in the region since 1982, according to the report.

PSRC's "Transportation 2040" Findings

The urgency of the TTI's congestion-busting recommendations for the nation's major metro regions - and Puget Sound - is underscored by data in another report, the draft environmental impact statement of the Puget Sound Regional Council's "Transportation 2040" plan. The Executive Summary shows the region's four-county population is expected to reach 4.9 million by 2040, or 42 percent higher the 2006 baseline figure of 3.5 million. Jobs in the region are projected to grow to 3.1 million by 2040, up 1.1 million or 60 percent from the 2006 figure of 1.94 million. Housing units will increase from 1.48 million in 2006 to 2.3 million in 2040, and 63 percent of those will be single-family.

According to the PSRC's modeling (and depending which policies are implemented by decision-makers) from 2006 to 2040 the number of average daily vehicle trips will rise between 37 to 42 percent; and total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by 18 to 39 percent, while per-capita VMT will decline from 1 to 16 percent. For all passenger trips in our region (this excludes freight), transit's mode share will rise from 2.9 percent in 2006 to between 4.2 and 5.2 percent in 2040. Walking and biking combined will rise from 10.4 percent of daily trips in 2006 to between 11.5 and 13.3 percent in 2040. Single- and multiple-occupant passenger vehicles, combined, will decline from 86.7 percent of daily trips in 2006 to between 81.5 and 84.3 percent in 2040. In other words, barring some sort of game-changing development such as a catastrophic disruption of the fuel supply, more than four out of five daily passenger trips in the region 30 years from now, will still be in vehicles.

Part Of The Solution: Highway Corridor Tolling

Well aware of the mobility challenges we face, the state legislature recently authorized a series of new studies which could lead to electronic variable-rate corridor tolling on several major Puget Sound highways to add missing links and help beat congestion. Variable rates are based on real-time congestion levels (preferably) or time of day; they are higher during peak periods and lower off-peak. These lanes would be free to transit and the tolls could be made either free or discounted to carpoolers with either two, or three or more passengers per vehicle. With implementation of more express toll lanes based on the new studies, prospects would be boosted for completion of a seamless system of express tolled lanes on all the region's major highways, and increased express bus service using those lanes.

Over time, it is possible the region could move to the next level of road user fees. This would entail a vehicle mileage charge on all highways and arterial streets, facilitated by on-board GPS technology in every vehicle, with discounts for off-peak travel and use of less-congested routes.

UPDATE: The Washington State Department of Transportation offers its own reaction to the new Urban Mobility Report.

How America moves its people and goods in an efficient, effective, and in a secure and environmentally friendly way, will have at least as great of an effect as any other major policy decisions that the current Administration and Congress make. But, woefully, transportation isn't really the stuff of eye-catching headlines and cocktail party chatter. That might be why, except among a small group of policy wonks, one of the most comprehensive calls for a new way of doing transportation business went largely unnoticed when it was released one month ago in Washington, D.C.

On June 9, the Washington, D.C.-based Bipartisan Policy Center released, "Performance Driven: A New Vision for U.S. Transportation Policy," which calls for dramatic shifts in the formulation of federal transportation policy, including, for the first time, linking funding to performance. (Discovery Institute's Cascadia Center will co-host an event in Seattle in August with the Bipartisan Policy Center, INRIX and local governments to unveil the report here in the Northwest.)

Thanks to $7.6 million more in federal monies for car and passenger ferries that was secured yesterday by U.S. Senator Patty Murray of Washington, Kitsap Transit will be fully funded for a six month trial run of a high speed, low wake passenger-only ferry to serve the Bremerton-Seattle route. The 118-seat passenger ferry is being manufactured by All American Marine in Bellingham, following authorization in April by the Kitsap Transit board of a $5.3 million construction contract. It's expected to be built by next March and in operation as soon as next June. Funds to pay for the boat's manufacture included proceeds from a special bonding arrangement between Kitsap Transit and the county's housing authority, plus earlier federal grants. Also on the horizon is a passenger-only ferry run between Seattle and Kingston - on the Kitsap Peninsula's northern tip. The Port of Kingston has $3.5 million in federal money to help launch the service with a new boat but must find funding for a back-up vessel. Here's a business plan the port presented to the Puget Sound Regional Council (pdf).

This latest federal infusion for ferries in Washington state includes $1.3 million for operations of the new Kitsap Transit foot ferry in the planned six-month trial run, to evaluate how well wake impacts are reduced; and another $1.3 million to prepare the dock to accommodate the vessel, the Kitsap Sun reports today. The $7.6 million also includes $2 million for King County's passenger ferry district to buy a replacement for the old, slow tour boat used on its popular West Seattle Water Taxi, and $3 million for Washington State Ferries toward upgrading its car ferry terminal in Anacortes, the gateway to the San Juan Islands.

Cascadia Center has consistently championed expanded foot ferries as part of a forward-looking multi-modal transit system for metro Puget Sound. Key touchpoints in this effort include a May, 2008 conference on the Seattle waterfront where another low-wake high-speed foot ferry built by All American Marine was demo'd. Cascadia also organized a July, 2007 foot ferry symposium at Salty's in West Seattle and in 2003 organized a special trip for policy-makers and opinion leaders to the San Francisco Bay Area to see their extensive foot ferry system in operation.

The completion of funding for the fast foot ferry trial in Bremerton is the latest and most upbeat chapter in a long and drawn-out saga.

West Coast major metro regions face growing population, plus projected increases in total vehicle miles traveled and freight volume. Traffic congestion already exacts a high toll, and without serious intervention will worsen many-fold, harming economic growth and quality of life in coming decades. That means ameliorative strategies and cross-boundary collaboration between the states are more important than ever. So, top transportation advisory panels for California, Oregon and Washington will this week hold their first-ever joint meetings, in Portland and Seattle. In a Washington State Transportation Commission press release, chair Carol Moser (below, right) says:

"These joint meetings are the first ever to occur between the West Coast commissions. These types of engagements are important for building relationships and alliances between the West Coast states. They provide the opportunity for us to partner and identify our shared transportation priorities, which we...intend to continue using as leverage in influencing our collective Congressional delegations in securing federal transportation funding for the tri-state area."

When all three commissions meet Wednesday, July 22 in Portland, one focus will be the Columbia River Crossing bridge project planned on I-5 to replace the old, dangerous and often congested twin spans connecting Clark County, Washington and Portland. The new structure will include a light rail extension, bike and pedestrian paths, and will be electronically tolled with higher rates at peak hours. The CRC project could lead to a deeper discussion of regional highway corridor tolling in metro Portland, according to some Oregon lawmakers and Portland-area planners. That approach is making inroads in metro Puget Sound, with several related state studies underway. At the Portland meeting the three commissions will also discuss the looming federal surface transportation funding re-authorization bill. The big six-year package will likely be delayed as long as 18 months from its expiration this fall, as the Obama administration and key Congressional members slog through the difficult and politically risky work of figuring out how to replace the failing federal gas tax.

For the second year running, a stopgap infusion will be required to keep solvent the federal Highway Trust Fund, which relies on the federal gas tax. A hike in the by-the-gallon tax is possible when the bill is finally re-drawn, but there is broad consensus its primacy is ending. The gas tax's ineffectiveness has been revealed after system maintenance and expansion badly lagged during four-and-a-half decades of robust traffic growth, plus related wear-and-tear. Other more recent constraints on gas tax revenues include continually improving vehicle mileage, a trend expected to accelerate with growing production of alternative-fueled vehicles.

Many innovations are likely in the new bill, including greater funding and policy emphases on transit, biking, urban density, tolling, vehicle mileage taxes, private investment, and - the West Coast state transportation commissions hope - freight mobility.

Also on the Portland agenda: federal funding for improved inter-city and high-speed rail; and a presentation on electronic tolling projects in the state of Washington. The meeting will be preceded by an informal discussion session among commission members, also open to the public.

The Thursday, July 23 meeting in Seattle between the Washington and California commissions will highlight several surface transportation priorities the two states share.