Cascadia Prospectus

The Washington State Department Of Transportation authorized a preliminary consultant inquiry - recently completed - into the feasibility of a tunnel to replace the congested, dangerously earthquake-prone and windstorm-prone State Route 520 Floating Bridge across Lake Washington from Seattle to the Eastside. It's one of just two bridges across the 22-mile long lake, and the jammed, 60s-vintage four-laner carries 155,000 to 160,000 people per day. The odds-on favorite to replace it is......a new, wider and safer floating bridge. However, well-heeled communities at both ends have strong concerns about bridge-related noise and air pollution, and on the Seattle side, about current roadway impacts on the Washington Park Arboretum. These concerns could translate into expensive mitigation measures attached to a new bridge, or absent that, litigation driving up the current WSDOT cost estimate of $3.9 to $4.38 billion. Due to their environmental concerns, community leaders in affected Seattle neighborhoods are looking favorably upon a tunnel for the sensitive western approach to any new bridge, as the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Debera Carlton Harrell reported in late October.

A bill passed by the state legislature includes funding for consultants to examine a western approach tunnel, a combination of tunnels and submerged tubes under the lake, and moving SR 520 out of the way of the arboretum. It also stipulates that any replacement of The Bridge Of 1,000 Sorrows (left) would have to include two general purpose and one carpool (HOV) lane in each direction, with the carpool lanes being capable of accomodating high-capacity transit. In a preliminary report to the legislatively-mandated SR 520 mediation committee, Casper Paludan-Muller of COWI Denmark found that "a floating tunnel anchored by stays, could be feasible" as a replacement for the current bridge. Paludan-Muller noted there is "no experience in the world yet" to support the floating tunnel concept and "further investigation is needed to reduce the risks." This would have to include an up-to-date assessment of earthquake resistance technology for floating tunnels, and associated construction costs. The COWI report notes that an immersed tunnel installed below the lake's bottom - something with which the firm has extensive global design experience - is another possibility, but would require a pile foundation due to Lake Washington's depth.

Paludan-Muller also reported that a tunnel solely for the western approach, which would lead into a replacement floating bridge, would be three to four times more expensive than building a widened western approach above ground.

No cost magnitude was given in the report for any kind of cross-lake tunnel, and certainly, any such endeavor would require community support and a financing plan which controls general taxpayer costs, in part through tolling, and perhaps also union pension fund or private infrastructure fund investment. The same financing tools will be important to consider even if a replacement floating bridge is chosen. Available revenues identified by WSDOT now exceed 50 percent of the estimated cost range only if tolling yet to be approved by legislators is included.

Far from a Seattle-centric concern, SR 520 is a crucial regional corridor linking Seattle to the jobs-rich Eastside; and connecting points east, southeast and northeast to the University of Washington in Seattle, a large regional employer and nationally-recognized educational and research institution. Following the rejection by voters Nov. 6 of the roads and transit ballot measure Proposition One, impetus is building for new approaches to transportation planning and funding.

The COWI report helps move the ball down the field, but we need to pick up the pace on SR 520 decision-making. Construction is not scheduled to start until 2012. With the bridge at risk of collapsing in an earthquake or severe windstorm - and taking a horrific toll on human life, and our civic reputation - that's simply too long. Yet doing it sooner also necessitates working even harder to ensure we have the best information, and the best design and finance plan for the replacement structure(s).

SR 520 decision-makers and the public will need to have the most realistic estimates of the full project costs - including environmental mitigation - of an immersed tunnel spanning the lake, a floating tunnel across the lake, a replacement floating bridge across the lake, and a tunnel versus a new above-surface structure for the western approach. Then, whichever options are selected, our region's and state's putative leaders will have to find innovative ways to raise the needed funds, making sure they don't try to soak wary taxpayers.

TECHNORATI TAGS: SEATTLE, EASTSIDE, WASHINGTON STATE, STATE ROUTE 520 FLOATING BRIDGE, SAFETY, EARTHQUAKE, WINDSTORM, REPLACEMENT BRIDGE, FLOATING TUNNEL, IMMERSED TUNNEL, COWI

It seems the global oil market isn't immune to at least one law of nature: The apex predator has the most voracious appetite.

The New York Times reports that the very oil-exporting countries that are experiencing remarkable domestic economic growth because of the global demand for oil may soon become victims of their own success.

Experts say ... several of the world's most important suppliers may need to start importing oil within a decade to power all the new cars, houses and businesses they are buying and creating with their oil wealth. ... The report [by Canada-based CIBC World Markets] said "soaring internal rates of oil consumption" in Russia, in Mexico and in member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reduce crude exports as much as 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade.

While unstable, undemocratic regimes are one thing (and not all oil exporters fall into the category), no one is going to begrudge the actual citizens of developing, oil-exporting nations the affluence and quality of life improvements that might come from global demand for the black gold burbling deep below their jurisdictional terra firma. Certainly, the United States, which relies on oil to drive its own economic engine, can't. (The New York Times says that although U.S. demand is flat, it continues to account for nearly one-quarter of the world's oil consumption.)

That said, reports of demand strains should raise the antennae of any American consumer who finds her purse or his wallet increasingly light after filling up at the pump. Internal domestic demand in oil states could tighten supply even further, especially if production capacity were to remain constant. Ergo, prices at the pump in Peoria are given even less reason to decrease as the number of oil-exporting countries gets comparatively smaller.

And for those of us who find it troubling that our addiction to oil props up and sustains many of the same rogue regimes that threaten American interests at home and abroad, the idea that supply will be in even fewer hands -- not necessarily of Uncle Sam's choosing -- is highly problematic.

Luckily for an oil-addicted America, our options aren't simply to acquiesce. Aside from only pursuing the politically charged (and depending who you ask, the environmentally damaging) option of opening up new areas for exploration, we have other options. Good options.

Among the best (we think) is something that Cascadia Center at Discovery Institute has been pressing for quite some time -- the electrification of transportation through the use of innovative vehicle technology (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles).

While not a panacea, supporting the development and use of vehicles that, with the flip of a switch, dramatically reduce our dependence on oil for transportation and simultaneously address environmental concerns, is perhaps the single best option we have. And it might work for our neighbor to the south too. In Mexico, according to The New York Times, the number of cars has "nearly doubled...in the last decade, and gasoline consumption is growing 5 percent a year."

The answer, of course, isn't to stop driving, but to change the way we power our vehicles. (Don't just take our advice; none other than America's de facto international affairs professor, columnist Thomas Friedman, writes about it often, including in this column one week ago.)

Then I got together with three engineering undergrads who helped launch the Vehicle Design Summit...These kids are building a hyper-efficient car, which, they hope, "will demonstrate a 95 percent reduction in embodied energy, materials and toxicity from cradle to cradle to grave" and provide "200 m.p.g. energy equivalency or better." The Linux of cars!

We'll keep watching closely reports and analyses about global oil consumption habits. But we'll also keep pushing our ideas on electrifying transportation. Wouldn't it be nice to know that studies and reports about consumption demand or instability in oil states weren't such a concern for the United States? And wouldn't it, paraphrasing former CIA director, R. James Woolsey, be even better to know that driving to get groceries and that your daily commute didn't help fund both sides of the war on terror?

TECHNORATI TAGS: OIL, FOREIGN OIL, OIL SUPPLY, UNITED STATES, TERRORISM, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, ELECTRICITY, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, JAMES WOOLSEY, CASCADIA CENTER

The action taken by the Port of Seattle yesterday in moving forward with purchase of the BNSF rail line east of Lake Washington is an extremely important milestone for the future of rails and trails on the Eastside.

The new wrinkle has King County purchasing rather than leasing from the Port the Renton-to-Bellevue and Woodinville-to-Redmond sections, to remove the track and develop a gravel trail. That will need to be reckoned with, but it isn't a deal killer. The Renton-to-Bellevue portion of the rail line was scheduled to be severed anyway, due to construction of an expanded section of I-405 at the Wilburton Trestle. What's left right now, for possible - and we believe, eminently feasible - Eastside commuter rail development, is the stretch of track between Bellevue and the town of Snohomish, to the north in Snohomish County.

Properly developed, the Bellevue-to-Snohomish section of the rail line would provide a smart alternative to I-405 traffic congestion for residents of fast-growing eastern Snohomish County who work in King County's booming Eastside jobs centers. Recreational and leisure use of the line could also prove substantial, over time.

Public and private transit will need to provide prompt, reliable intermodal connections to jobs centers and shopping cores in some instances along this stretch. That's a challenge worth embracing. Regionally, the need is evident for better intermodal connections, and for more transit corridors which provide faster and more amenable portal-to-portal service.

In a recent report, our consultant, Read Fay (former Northwest operations director for BNSF) highlighted the viability of the BNSF line for 40-miles-per-hour commuter rail service, once the old rails and ties are replaced with newer ones.

The question now is whether the track rehab and interim gravel trail can be done in a cost effective way, and not preclude laying new rail over an existing trail after the I-405 section is completed.

Meanwhile we were pleased that the Snohomish-to-Bellevue section will retain rail. The original deal was for removal of the current rail line for the 31-mile section from Renton to Woodinville. Now we can actively plan for at least a rail demonstration project starting in Snohomish and ending in Bellevue for phase one.

I've written here about how public and private capital could eventually be combined to make Eastside commuter rail a reality.

UPDATE, 12/14/07: The Seattle Times reports this morning that the Port will buy the entire 42-mile rail line and the county will hold off for now on purchasing the two sections noted above for use as a trail. The county will have until July to do so, and will seek public input on the best use for the corridor. Port Commissioner John Creighton tells the Times he heard from a number of suburban mayors strongly opposed to the County's original proposal to lease the whole corridor from the Port, and rip out all the tracks for a trail.

A rail and trail solution is still the best course.

TECHNORATI TAGS: EASTSIDE COMMUTER RAIL, PORT OF SEATTLE, KING COUNTY, BELLEVUE, SNOHOMISH, RAILS AND TRAILS, CASCADIA CENTER

The Seattle Times reports the retiring of four badly-deteriorated, 1927-vintage Steel Electric Class car ferries by Washington State Ferries has prompted not only a shifting of state ferry project funds to pay for three replacement vessels, but also temporary passenger-only ferry service between Seattle and Port Townsend on the Olympic Peninsula. More details on the new foot ferry route from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Port Townsend, a top Northwest tourist destination known for its Victorian architecture, arts community, walkable shopping district, maritime history and Olympic Peninsula access, has been hit hard since car ferry service from Keystone on Whidbey Island was cancelled in late November. By January, the state aims to have a temporary replacement car ferry (from Pierce County) in place, and a new one running in 14 months. But in the near term, a passenger-only ferry the state had been about to sell on E-Bay, the MV Snohomish, began running from Seattle to Port Townsend Thursday, December 13. (Map and brief synopsis, both by the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, right).

That's an attractive run to a great destination, though perhaps more alluring - weather-wise - during the spring, summer and fall than winter. It's the kind of route that a private operator, as opposed to the state, might consider running......with a smaller, more fuel- and cost-efficient boat than the 350-seat MV Snohomish.

Tim Caldwell, General Manager of the Port Townsend Chamber of Commerce, says the organization sees passenger-only ferries and a more robust regional intermodal transit system as key to the future for their region, boosting tourism and, long-term, helping preserve the natural wonders of the Olympic Peninisula. In an e-mail interview, Caldwell tells Cascadia Prospectus:

The Port Townsend Chamber of Commerce has sponsored several PT-Seattle passenger-only ferry excursions. Its most recent was during the August, 2003 Hood Canal Bridge closure. During this three-day closure, the Chamber, in cooperation with Aqua Express, Jefferson Transit, the City of Port Townsend, and Puget Sound Energy, provided a Friday through Sunday service that proved a great success. As one visitor remarked, "it was like Christmas in August." 

Given the current situation regarding the loss of auto ferry service to Port Townsend, a high speed passenger-only ferry link between Seattle and Port Townsend is an opportunity to demonstrate the benefits of alternative transportation. The 90-minute,$6.70 round trip, with a free Jefferson Transit day pass for Port Townsend-bound passengers, is an excellent example of seamless transportation. 

Admittedly, the time of year, and the short notice for promoting the service makes it difficult to realize the full potential of the service, but we believe every demonstration run creates new converts to the idea of expanding the passenger-only ferry network throughout the Puget Sound region. 

Both the City of Port Townsend and Fort Worden State Park are formulating long range strategic plans that will provide amenities and marketing intended to draw greater attention to the community. The transportation element of the planning will focus on systems and services which will allow travelers to visit without their vehicles. High speed passenger-only ferry service with complementary ground transportation are essential elements of these plans.

The Port Townsend Chamber of Commerce strongly believes the compelling attraction of the natural wonders of the Olympic Peninsula will be better preserved by focusing on alternative transportation services that minimize the impact on the environment. We contend passenger-only ferry service is key to the solution.

The state ferry system was planning to sell the Snohomish and one other similarly-sized passenger-only ferry because it had decided to get out of the passenger-only ferry business. That decision isn't likely to change, long term, and in the meantime, all kinds of indications hint that passenger-only ferries, once integral transportation here during the old "Mosquito Fleet" days, might make a come-back.

The Puget Sound Regional Council, an important planning - but not decision-making - body, continues its study into how best to coordinate and govern passenger-only ferry service regionally. A consultant memo on possible regional foot ferry governance structures was presented at a meeting of the study's advisory committee this week. It noted one feasible option would be putting passenger ferry route planning and financing under a larger regional transportation super-agency for central Puget Sound. (Snohomish, King, Pierce and perhaps Kitsap County could be included; and the same mutli-county approach to transportation decision-making and funding could be replicated elsewhere in the state and the I-5 corridor in particular). On p. 4 of the report linked directly above, Becca Aue of Nelson Nygaard writes to PSRC staff:

For some time the Puget Sound region, as well as the state Legislature, has been discussing the idea of regional transportation governance. In its 2006 Final Report to Governor Gregoire, the Regional Transportation Commission recommended that the Washington State Legislature create a 15-member Puget Sound Regional Transportation Commission (PSRTC) with authority and responsibility for planning, prioritizing and funding all modes of regional transportation for the four-county area. Although no legislative action has been taken to implement this recommendation, the idea is still alive and will likely receive further debate. Should the PSRTC be created, this body could oversee and develop POF service for "regionally-significant" routes (which would need to be defined), or possibly all POF services within the region.

A regional transportation super-agency continues to draw public support from influential backers.

Folding in oversight of passenger-only ferries would make a lot of sense if a regional transportation decision-making body - to plan, prioritize and fund road and transit projects, with voter approval - can actually gain approval from state legislators. A bill passed the State Senate last year but died in the House, under pressure from varied interests concerned it would undermine passage of the now-defeated roads-and-transit ballot measure Proposition 1 in November.

One way to ehance regional coordination and boost funding prospects for passenger-only ferries on Puget Sound (and Lake Washington) would be the adoption of a voluntary interlocal agreement among ports, cities, tribes, private foot ferry operators, labor and Washington State Ferries. The aim would be to pool resources, coordinate routes, and embrace joint public and private-sector cooperation. Cascadia Center recently presented at a ferry system summit in Bremerton some principles upon which such an agreement could be based. The finance piece is key, of course. Cascadia's memorandum brief notes:

Funding options to be explored should include the federal ferry discretionary fund; capital funds from ports in the region; hotel/motel taxes; reasonable government subsidies; and concessions at redeveloped ferry gateways.

As the regional foot ferries initiative continues to develop, keep your eye on the Port of Kingston. Kingston is a north Kitsap County community with an unserved market of locals, extending out in a radius to larger towns such as Port Townsend, and Port Angeles on the Oylmpic Peninsula, who need and want direct passenger-ferry access to Seattle from a location more convenient than the jammed car ferry operation further south at Winslow, where vehicle-free riders must contend with spotty transit connections from north Kitsap, or pricey parking. The Port has been bolstered by an imminent $3.5 million federal start-up grant for the route. It's part of a larger, $139 million federal Urban Partnerships congestion-fighting grant to the region which depends on state approval of tolls on SR 520.

The port is also seeking another $900,000 from a special state ferry fund, and plans to initiate foot ferry service from Kingston to Seattle on an 80- to 100-seat boat, achieving 100 percent fare-box recovery, and profitability, by year four of operation.

One-way travel time would be 35 minutes, and fares $12 with a qaurterly pass, $13.50 with a ticket book, and $15 for walk-ons. There'd be one more boat for back-up. The Port would own and operate the run but could still sub-contract.

Bearing in mind an earlier private sector attempt which failed due to excess seating capacity, high fuel costs and operating expenses, a lean operation is key. That was the message to the PSRC study advisory committee this week from Port of Kingston Director Mike Bookey, a self-described "refugee" from Eastside high-tech start-up companies.

As several members of the study advisory committee noted, a lot is riding on the success of the Kingston-Seattle foot ferry route.

If the concept is proved, the planned Kingston-Seattle foot ferry could serve as one model for the region, providing waterborne transport from a convenient multi-county gathering point across Puget Sound to Seattle. Another model is to connect higher-density cities on the eastern (Seattle) side of the Sound with each other. Fast Tacoma-Seattle and Everett- Seattle foot ferries could do a lot to relieve I-5 congestion. Finally, there's the tourism-based model, already illustrated by Victoria Clipper's Seattle-Victoria, B.C. passenger-only service, and now, also by the temporary Seattle-Port Townsend run.

So until January 6th, holiday season atmo in Port Townsend is an easy, car-free day-trip away. So why not hop on the Seattle-Port Townsend passenger-only ferry, sit back, and enjoy the ride? Make sure you find lovely Chetzemoka Park in Port Townsend, and the pathway there down to the beach. More information on the temporary passenger-only ferry to Port Townsend here and here, including the schedule.

TECHNORATI TAGS: PASSENGER-ONLY FERRIES, FOOT FERRIES, PORT TOWNSEND, SEATTLE, KINGSTON, WASHINGTON STATE FERRIES, EVERETT, TACOMA, PUGET SOUND REGIONAL COUNCIL