Cascadia Prospectus

Cascadia Center "Jump Start" Conference Live-Blog Post #1

REDMOND, WA -- Political and business leaders along with consumers are mobilizing to minimize man's contribution to climate change and global warming. Even as mass transit spreads, personal vehicles will indisputably remain vital for many commuters, especially those with multi-stop "trip chains". Cleaner fuels and cars are considered essential, and the popularity of the Toyota Prius electric-gas hybrid is a leading indicator. There are varied reasons why we need to wean our nation off foreign oil while embracing clean electric and renewable fuel sources, and plug-in hybrids which can double the excellent mileage of the Prius. National security and environmental protection rank high on the list, as Cascadia Center for Regional Development's Director Bruce Agnew and Senior Fellow Steve Marshall explain in this Seattle Times op-ed.

With this in mind, Cascadia Center and co-sponsors today are staging the "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy Future" conference from Microsoft's campus. We've got a full house. In the opening hour, King County Executive Ron Sims said:

"The technologies that we see today, we'd like to see them mature...One of my sons once told me, you're part of the problem not the solution. Your buses pollute. He was right. Now, King County has more than 140 hybrids in its fleet, and a soft order for 440 plug-in hybrid vehicles."

Sims also outlined how King County biosolids will be used to fertilize Eastern Washington canola crops used to develop biodiesel.

Buzz Rodland's Toyota dealership in Everett has been selling scads of Priuses, as the Everett Herald recently reported. Rodland, Snohomiish County board member of the Washington State Auto Dealer Association, told the audience:

"...it's time to clean up our act, and hybrids have really started to help with that. Year-to-date in the Pacific Northwest, the Number One-selling car is the Toyota Prius. We think it will end up the Number One-selling car in the Northwest this year. The buyers" are forming clubs and advocating for the car, "when they fill up at gas stations, which isn't very often."

Bill Reinert is the National Manager for Toyota USA's Advanced Technologies Group. Closing out this morning's Auto Industry Update, he observed:

"We are developing plug-in hybrids, we are developing lithium ion batteries. We may not go as fast as some of you would like," but we want to be sure we get it right.

Reinert said oil exploration success peaked in the 1960s; much current production is now in increasingly remote, or environmentally or politically problematic areas; the cost and carbon emissions are substantial. That leads us to a new era of conservation, Reinert said, and hybrid (electric and liquid fuel) cars currently have the smalllest carbon footprint.

But where the electricity comes from to power hybrids is crucial; it must be more and more from clean sources and less and less from traditional coal-powered generation, or the environmental advantages of hybrids become diminished, Reinert warned. Making clean-powered hybrid vehicles work in states like Michigan, Kentucky and Texas - which still rely heavily on coal-powered electricity - will be a key challenge, he added.

We'll hear more this afternoon about the market landscape for cleaner cars in the panel discussion, "Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles: How Soon And What Impact?" Panelists are: Roger Duncan, Austin Energy/Plug-In Partners; Felix Kramer, founder, Caliifornia Cars Initiative; Greg Rock, Co-Founder, Green Car Company; Nicholas Zielinski, Vehicle Chief Engineer for the Volt, General Motors.

TECHNORATI TAGS: RENEWABLE FUELS, PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, PHEV, TOYOTA PRIUS, BILL REINERT, NICK ZIELINSKI, CHEVY VOLT, RODLAND TOYOTA, GREG ROCK, GREEN CAR COMPANY, FELIX KRAMER, CALIFORNIA CARS INITIATIVE, ROGER DUNCAN, AUSTIN ENERGY, PLUG-IN PARTNERS

Cascadia Center "Jump Start" Conference Live-Blog Post #2

REDMOND, WA. -- I'm live-blogging today from "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy Future," the conference our Cascadia Center For Regional Development is co-sponsoring at Microsoft's Redmond campus. (My first live blog post of the day is here). Underway now is the panel, "National Security Imperatives For Flex-Fuel Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles." It features Anne Korin and Gal Luft, Co-Directors of the Institute For The Analysis Of Global Security; and former CIA head and National Commission On Energy Policy Commissioner R. James Woolsey. In an exclusive video address to the conference, Woolsey said:

This war against terror is the only war we have fought, since the civil war, where we finance both sides....next time you pull into the gas station, look at yourself in the rear view mirror. Now you know who is paying for the madrassas in Pakistan. We ought to be decisively moving away from oil as a strategic commodity.

Advances in battery technology must and will continue, yielding plug-in hybrid vehicles that will get 125-150 miles per gallon of gas and go 30 to 35 miles on a single charge. With flexibile fuel capabilities, and running on, for instance, a liquid fuel blend that's 85 percent cellulosic ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, a PHEV will be able to get 500 mpg, Woolsey said. That grows to approximately 1,000 - yes, 1,000 mpg - if the vehicle is constructed of the lightweight carbon composites used in aerospace and race cars, Woolsey added. He concluded:

One thousand miles per gallon ought to be enough to make a Wahhabi frown.

Luft said the average life cycle of cars in the U.S. is 16.8 years, and "if it only knows how to run on gasoline, that is what it will do for the next 16.8 years....We need to give people fuel choice:" including more and longer lasting electricity through plug-in hybrid technology, plus butanol, methanol and other fuel sources. All new cars manufactured for the U.S. market should by federal mandate be flex-fuel capable, Luft recommended.

Korin urged, if you want action you have to make this a voting issue, so support the DRIVE Act to cut oil imports, and boost fuel and vehicle choice; and lobby your elected representatives in Congress to do so as well.

On a following panel here today covering climate change imperatives for flex-fuel plug-in vehicles are K.C. Golden, policy director of Climate Solutions; Dr. Andrew Frank of University of California, Davis; and Dr. Philp Mote, climatologist, University of Washington.

TECHNORATI TAGS: PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, PHEV, FOREIGN OIL, NATIONAL SECURITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENT, ANNE KORIN, GAL LUFT, K.C. GOLDEN, ANDREW FRANK, PHILIP MOTE

Monday, May 7th's "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy" conference - staged by our Cascadia Center of Discovery Institute with the cooperation of co-sponsors and event host Microsoft - garnered front-page, top-fold coverage the next day in the Seattle Times. The article was titled, "Fans Of Plug-in Cars Build Their Power Base." The same story, by reporters Hal Bernton and Mike Lindblom, ran in the Yakima Herald-Republic.

The Seattle-Post Intelligencer's Robert McClure covered the conference as well; in "Visions Of A Northwest Hybrid Car Future Abound."

Crosscut publisher David Brewster provided reportage, background and analysis, in "Will Plug-in Cars End The Age Of Oil?"

Along with several other newspaper editorialists and opinionators, Gary Crooks of the Spokane Spokesman-Review attended "Jump Start" - and weighed in with this editorial; "Fueling Inertia." Crooks' colleague Rebecca Nappi, the paper's Associate Editorial Page Editor, wrote a Sunday May 13 column drawng on our event and her experience as a Toyota Prius hybrid owner, "Hybrids Arrive As 'The Cool Cars'." The Everett Herald's editorial page editor Bob Bolerjack was also in Redmond for the event, and penned this Sunday May 13 editorial, "Plug-in Cars Show Promise; Let's Address Obstacles."

Seattle's all-news KOMO-AM 1000 came, and on May 7 aired several iterations of a story filed by reporter Sue Romero - audio clips here and here. A brief item aired on KING-5 TV 11 p.m. news May 7. TVW, Washington state's public affairs cable channel, taped the day-long event live and began airing the seven segments last week. The TVW segments are available for viewing here.

At Cascadia Prospectus, live blog posts from the conference were "Your Ride Shapes Our National Security, Environment;" and "Driving To A Cleaner Future." Seattle Times senior tech writer and columnist Brier Dudley also wrote about "Jump Start" on his blog, in "Beyond The Prius: Plugging In To Green Transportation."

Scroll down to "Speaker Slideshow Links" here to get key informational points presented at the conference.

TECHNORATI TAGS: RENEWABLE FUELS, PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, PHEV, NATIONAL SECURITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, VEHICLE TO GRID

"Provincial Government Wants Cab Companies To Go Green," is the top story today in Vancouver, B.C.'s morning paper, The Province. British Columbia Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon is urging the regional board charged with granting taxi licenses to dispense them only for highly fuel efficient or hybrid vehicles, in order to help reduce the province's cumulative greenhouse gas emissions by at least one-third in the next 13 years.

Fewer tailpipe emissions from petroleum-based fuel, combined with greater use of cleaner liquid fuels plus ongoing adoption of liquid fuel+electric-powered hybrid vehicles, is green. Eventually, as lithium ion battery technology continues to improve, expect to see more plug-in hybrids in Vancouver's taxi fleet and on the streets of Cascadia's big cities - Vancouver, Seattle and Portland - where more conventional hybrids such as the Toyota Prius are already common and growing in popularity. Plug-ins, now under development by major automakers such as Chevy and Toyota, go even further on a charge, after loading up on electricity from a common wall outlet during off-peak hours.

But as Toyota's Bill Reinert stressed at last week's "Jump Start to A Secure Clean Energy Future" conference sponsored by our Cascadia Center of Discovery Institute, the electricity used to power plug-in hybrid vehicles must be clean, or the green benefits diminish. Likewise, others have noted, clean, green liquid fuels must be rigorously evaluated to ensure they really are clean and green, not merely coasting on hype. The type and amount of energy required to produce alternative fuels must not greatly lower the net gain to the environment when they are used in place of fossil fuels.

That said, hybrid vehicles using electricity and liquid fuels are already environmentally and economically attractive to some fleet managers. Gauging reaction to the transport ministry's announcement today, The Province reports:

"I think it's a good idea," said John Palis, general manager of Black Top and Checker Cabs in Vancouver. "We're getting away from the days of the old used police-cars, and those old big gas-guzzlers. It's a matter of economics, plus it's the correct thing to do." Palis said hybrids have been on Vancouver roads since 2000. One hybrid taxi ran 330,000 kilometres without any engine problems. It so impressed Toyota that they took the old cab and traded it for a new one, in order to study the engine.

"The current hybrid cars that we're using have proved themselves some of the most reliable cars we've ever purchased," Palis said. The fuel-burning rate of a hybrid is less than 50 per cent that of a standard cab, Palis said. That translates into a saving of $10,000-12,000 a year in fuel costs. "Over the course of four years, the vehicle virtually pays for itself," he said.

According to the B.C. Transportation Ministry's press release today:

As part of the government's plan to take action on climate change, a new emphasis will be placed on promoting eco-friendly taxis in the Vancouver and Victoria areas, Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon announced today. "This government's goal is to reduce B.C.'s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 33 per cent below current levels by 2020," said Falcon. "This is an aggressive target and it sets a new standard in transportation. That's why I am asking the Passenger Transportation Board to take into account the Province's greenhouse gas reduction policy in all its decisions -- to help create a cleaner environment for all British Columbians."

Falcon has sent a letter to the Passenger Transportation Board, requesting that all approvals of applications for taxis in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) and the Capital Regional District (CRD) be for eco-friendly vehicles (hybrid or other highly energy efficient vehicles) only. This would extend to approvals for new licences or additional vehicles under current licenses in the GVRD and CRD....."We are going to continually seek new ways to promote clean transportation in B.C.," said Falcon. "This is the first step towards developing a commercial passenger transportation system which produces a minimum of greenhouse gases."

All-electric lithium battery-powered PT Cruiser taxicabs developed by Hybrid Technologies are to begin operating in New York City. The company last week demonstrated other electric vehicles at our "Jump Start" conference in Redmond, part of a larger mix of hybrids and electrics on display there.

Green vehicles and fuels are rightly in the limelight these days. Also especially important environmentally in the transportation sector are commercial trucks, which leave a considerable footprint of greenhouse gas emissions. We'll get to that another day.

TECHNORATI TAGS: VANCOUVER, GREEN TAXIS, HYBRID VEHICLES, FLEX FUELS, KEVIN FALCON, BRITISH COLUMBIA, TRANSPORT MINISTRY

In a Seattle Times op-ed published today, the former chief examiner of the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission, George Kargianis, and former state Supreme Court justice Phil Talmadge assert Sound Transit's proposal to build light rail across Lake Washington to Eastside suburbs via the I-90 floating bridge just doesn't pencil out.

We have taken no official position yet on either the Eastside light rail proposal or the larger November, 2007 roads and transit ballot measure of which it is a part. However, our Cascadia Center of Discovery Institute supports system wide, time variable automated highway tolling; taxpayer-friendly design-build contracting; enhanced opportunities for public-private partnerships to build and operate transportation infrastructure; improved transportation technology to help address congestion; regional governance in Central Puget Sound to plan, prioritize and fund road and transit projects; and cost-effective, speedy public transit that is well-integrated into the larger regional transportation system.

According to Seattle Times transportation reporter Mike Lindblom, the price of the fall roads and transit package, if approved by voters, would be $37 billion through 2028. This includes financing costs and inflation, but not the additional bond payments that are expected to be necessary after 2028.

Headlines in April emphasized the draft package was not structured to fully fund completion of a crucial rebuild of the earthquake- and storm-prone State Route 520 floating bridge; and that the state treasurer urges tolls on both 520 and I-90 to pay for the 520 project in full.

Against this backdrop, the Kargianis-Talmadge piece in The Times today raises additional concerns about the fall ballot measure which deserve further analysis by the media, stakeholders and voters.

The co-authors note that Central Puget Sound transit ridership is now less than 3 percent of total daily travel in the region, and according to projections by the Puget Sound Regional Council, would grow to only 4.5 percent in 2030 with increased transit investments. They write:

...the I-90 center corridor would be acquired by Sound Transit exclusively for light rail between Seattle and the Eastside. Buses, vanpools, HOVs and all Mercer Island vehicular traffic now using this inner corridor would be rerouted to the outer lanes. The result would be increased delays and congestion on all traffic moving between Seattle and the Eastside...The I-90 bridge would suffer a vehicle capacity loss of one-third compared with today. Even with an optimistic doubling of transit ridership, there would be a 9-percent loss of total (vehicle and transit) person trips. Light rail would not give us either the flexibility or the capacity that rapid bus service offers at a small fraction of the cost. Bus rapid transit can share the center lanes, thus avoiding the one-third loss of vehicular traffic.

.....The proposed taking of the I-90 center corridor should be viewed for what it really is: an unwarranted, unnecessary, unproductive, wasteful and essentially disruptive use that would contribute to congestion, not alleviate it.

A very different and supportive view of the fall ballot measure is expressed in a guest op-ed by King County Council members Julia Patterson and Reagan Dunn in the current edition of The Puget Sound Business Journal (subscription required). Another recent voice of support for the roads and transit proposal heading to voters was that of Aubrey Davis, former chairman of the Washington Transportation Commission, in the Seattle Times.

The debate will surely continue, and sharpen, in coming months.

TECHNORATI TAGS: SOUND TRANSIT, SEATTLE, EASTSIDE, LIGHT RAIL, BUS RAPID TRANSIT, GEORGE KARGIANIS, PHIL TALMADGE, AUBREY DAVIS

On days when telecommuting won't work, I park my car on a side street in West Seattle and take the bus downtown. After one or two round trips per week for four months, I'm not on the verge of driving instead, but I'm pretty unimpressed with King County Metro's on-time performance. The #54 is regularly five to ten minutes late getting to its Alaska Street stops on the way downtown, and two days in a row last week, between 2:30 and 4:00 p.m., the #55 bus from downtown back to West Seattle was running at least ten minutes late. The first time, when it finally did arrive, we sat through a green light while the driver finished up a personal cell phone call. The next day, more than 10 minutes after the #55 was to have left a stop two blocks north of where I was waiting on First Avenue, it still hadn't showed, and I boarded another bus headed near enough to where my car was parked.

For several years, riders on some Metro routes have been able to use certain cell phones or handheld Internet devices to tell when their buses are really expected to arrive. Now, a research project underway at the University of Washington is examining improvements in bus tracking via wireless Internet and global positioning system technologies. More and better information will be helpful, but, knowing the bus is running late doesn't get it there on time.

We may need to really re-think how our region's bus system is arranged. Quite possibly, what's needed are fewer routes, more greatly concentrated along selected major corridors, running to and from designated transit hubs with increased frequency. Add to this a greater reliance on paratransit options for the last few miles.

Punctuality is a minimum baseline expectation in the world of business and education. Managers and elected officials need to ensure their public transit systems conform to that expectation, and convey added value through speedier service delivery.

TECHNORATI TAGS: KING COUNTY METRO, BUSES, ON-TIME PERFORMANCE, WEST SEATTLE, CORRIDORS, HUBS, PARATRANSIT

In a Puget Sound Business Journal op-ed titled "Green Wheels Are Spinning For Venture Backers," Cascadia Center Director Bruce Agnew and Senior Fellow Steve Marshall write that transportation's sizable contribution to carbon dioxide emissions necessitates more investment in green vehicle technology. They say such investment can yield further improvements in promising battery technology for low-emission electric and electric-biofuel hybrid cars; plus intelligent systems to integrate plug-in hybrids with the power grid and with intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. Drawing on a presentation from Cascadia's "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy Future" forum last month at Microsoft's Redmond campus, Agnew and Marshall write:

Tom Alberg, a managing director of Madrona Venture Group, of Seattle, said the venture capital community has awakened and will be a helpful ally in moving toward energy independence and green energy. He noted that promising areas include more efficient conversion of biomass to fuels; batteries and other improved storage devices for power; software networks that make the electric grid more efficient; and predictive technologies for automobiles, which can help drivers avoid fuel-wasting traffic congestion.

Marshall and Agnew continue:

......Investing in green transportation technologies has paid off this year in another part of the country. A venture capital-backed spinoff from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology called A123 Systems has developed a new type of rechargeable lithium ion battery that is much more powerful and durable than current hybrid car batteries.

This month, A123 announced that its new technology will allow automakers to build PHEVs with a battery pack lasting more than 10 years or 150,000 miles. General Motors is looking at using A123 batteries in its plug-in Saturn Vue due in 2009, and its plug-in electric Chevy Volt due the following year. A123's battery announcement may well accelerate those rollouts and boost competition among major automakers to produce the first commercially available rechargeable vehicle.

Popular Mechanics has weighed in, with an article by Ben Hewitt titled, "Plug-in Hybrid Cars: How They'll Solve The Fuel Crunch." The magazine reports it has run the numbers on ethanol and hydrogen as potentially greener replacements for fossil fuels, and neither fares well, while according to a 2006 study by the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Labs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 27 percent in the U.S., even if the electricity to power them comes from the traditional "dirty" coal production method. As PNNL researchers write on p. 12 of the above-linked study:

For the nation as a whole, the total greenhouse gases are expected to be reduced by 27% from the projected penetration of PHEVs. The key driver for this result is the overall improvement in efficiency along the electricity generation path compared to the entire conversion chain from crude oil to gasoline to the combustion process in the vehicle. Fundamental to this result is the assumption that a PHEV by itself would be more efficient than a conventional gasoline car because of the regenerative braking capability that stores the kinetic energy in the battery during deceleration and because the engine operates at near optimal conditions more of the time than in conventional vehicles.

For PHEVs to gain strong market share, Hewitt writes, incentives for off-peak recharging will be needed, along with solid plans to corral needed lithium from global repositories, to power PHEV batteries.

TECHNORATI TAGS: CASCADIA CENTER, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, LITHIUM BATTERY, POPULAR MECHANICS

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell meet tomorrow in Vancouver to strategize on greenhouse gas reductions. The Governator has made climate change Priority One for his administration, winning new state goals to lower carbon dioxide emissions in coming decades, and recruiting other Western U.S. governors and Campbell to commit to similar targets. Campbell and Schwarzenegger have also been talking up a so-called "hydrogen highway" stretching from California to B.C. The idea is that in the future, lower-polluting cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells will become prevalent, and an infrastructure of hydrogen fueling stations will be established along major north-south corridors such as I-5 and Route 99. Campbell has announced plans for such a network within B.C., and says he hopes one day to see that extended the length of the West Coast.

Let's back up for a quick minute here. A growing number of political conservatives have joined with moderates and liberals to push for cleaner, greener transportation to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and control risk of further acceleration in global climate change. But in "green transportation" there is as yet no one silver bullet solution. Expanded mass transit is part of the puzzle - if it's convenient, speedy and pencils out, cost-wise. Congestion pricing including tolls, plus car-pooling and telecommuting all figure in, as well.

But behavioral change can only accomplish so much. People are still going to drive cars and trucks. Abundantly, as nearly all urban region traffic studies predict. To reduce the carbon footprint that results, what's needed is continued research, development and deployment of a portfolio of clean transportation technologies, including biofuels, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cells. The true economic and environmental costs of each need more scrutiny.

In the national Canadian daily The Globe and Mail, Sean McCarthy reports:

...Mr. Schwarzenegger's....passion for hydrogen has been waning, as it becomes clear that the ambitious vision for a hydrogen future faces serious delays and ongoing hurdles. Mr. Schwarzenegger is now promoting a "low carbon fuel standard" that would peg hydrogen as just one of several technologies manufacturers could use to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and other pollutants.

....Oregon and Washington have yet to commit to a hydrogen future, leaving a 1,400-kilometre gap between the last hydrogen fuelling station in British Columbia and the most northerly one in California. And unlike B.C. and California, those two states don't have indigenous fuel-cell industries to promote.

...the hydrogen car still faces some major challenges...The fuel cell typically lasts about a tenth of the lifespan of a traditional internal combustion engine. Fuel-cell vehicles themselves are prohibitively expensive because they are made of high-end materials like platinum and because the electrochemical process that creates the hydrogen is not as efficient as it could be...Hydrogen...typically occurs in combination with other elements, including with oxygen as water, and with carbon in fossil fuels. As a result, the hydrogen has to be manufactured, typically using electricity produced from a variety of sources including emissions-heavy coal, but also emissions-free hydroelectric.

In the end, the alternative fuel commercial infrastructure will have to follow market decisions made by motorists, and businesses which invest in vehicle fleets. It's probably not too far-fetched to predict that biofuels and electricity are going to figure into North America's alt-fuel future at least as prominently - if not more so - than hydrogen fuel cells; and that operators of truck stops and fueling stations along major interstate corridors will figure out ways to respond to those choices.

UPDATE: 14:10 p.m.: Bruce Agnew, Director of our Cascadia Center For Regional Development, will appear live on-air tomorrow between 10:30 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. on the Bill Good Show, CKNW-AM 980 in Vancouver, to discuss West Coast alternative fuel infrastructure options. Listen live on the Web - just go to the station's site: and under "Station" on the left-hand side of the main page, click on "Listen To CKNW."

TECHNORATI TAGS: HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS, HYDROGEN HIIGHWAY, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, GORDON CAMPBELL, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON